Enhancing Oil Field Investment Decisions Using Spiral Dynamics Optimization

Abstract

Investment is an activity in the present to obtain profits in the future. One method of investment assessment is calculating Net Present Value (NPV) using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF). To determine the right time to carry out an investment in order to obtain maximum profits, it is necessary to determine a time limit for when the investment should be carried out or not. Then, the threshold curve (optimal implementation time limit) for the investment will first be determined. After obtaining the threshold curve for each investment option, the NPV value for each investment option will then be determined. The best investment choice is the one that provides the highest NPV value. The metaheuristic method is an effective optimization method for determining the optimal investment implementation time limit (threshold curve). One metaheuristic method for determining threshold curves is the Spiral Dynamics Optimization algorithm developed by Kenichi Tamura and Keiichiro Yasuda, a search algorithm inspired by phenomena in nature such as water speed, air pressure speed, Nautilus Shells, and spiral galaxy shapes. The results of this research are areas that are above the threshold curve, which can implement the project, while areas that are below the curve are not recommended for implementing the project.