Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting

University Election Analysis Logistic Regression Approach with Dummy and Ordinal Variables

Miftha Delinda, Devni Prima Sari — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Education has a very important role to advance the development of a country. One of them is the university. Thus, if you continue your studies at university, it is hoped that you will have the knowledge and skills in accordance with the study program you are taking, which will later become the basic capital to be more competent in the world of work. Logistic regression is a statistical method that can be used to determine the factors that influence the choice of university for class XII Phase F students. The dependent variable consists of two categories. This research aims to determine the factors that influence the choice of university for class XII Phase F students. This type of research is applied research and uses primary data obtained from filling out questionnaires. This research was carried out at SMAN 3 Padang. The population in this study were all students in class XII Phase F at SMA Negeri 3 Padang with a sample of 78 students obtained using the Purposive Sampling method. The results of the research show that the factors that influence the choice of university for class XII Phase F students at SMA Negeri 3 Padang are father's work based on educated and trained labor, father's work based on educated labor, father's work based on trained labor, father's work based on uneducated and unskilled labor, convenient university location, easy access to transportation, rent, food and daily living costs -affordable days according to budget, and information from social media and websites.

On Finding Shortest Path Over Vocational High School in Yogyakarta Based on Graph Theory Algorithm

Deddy Rahmadi — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Finding shortest path is one of problem in graph theory. This research aims to apply the Dijkstra algorithm in determining the shortest route for State Vocational School (SMK) students throughout Yogyakarta. State Vocational Schools throughout Yogyakarta have several locations spread across various regions, and determining the shortest path is crucial for the efficiency of students' time and transportation. Dijkstra's algorithm was chosen because of its ability to find the shortest path in a weighted graph, which can be applied to complex networks of school trajectories. The research method involved collecting geographic data on schools, available transportation, and distance between locations. This data is used to build a weighted graph that represents the transportation network between State Vocational Schools throughout Yogyakarta. The implementation of Dijkstra's algorithm is then carried out using python programming language. We hope that the research results can provide mapping of the shortest routes between schools, minimize student travel time, and increase transportation efficiency. The practical implications of this research include the development of an information system or application that can help students, teachers and schools in planning daily trips. Apart from that, the research results can also be a basis for developing methods for determining the shortest route in the context of other schools or similar environments.

Factors influencing the Poverty Depth Index in West Sumatra Province through Panel Data Regression Analysis

Mutia Syifa, Helma — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0000

The poverty depth index is one of the measures that can be used in measuring the poverty level in a region well. This is because the poverty depth index measures the depth of poverty by focusing on the expenditure gap of the poor against the poverty line. Based on BPS West Sumatra data for 2017-2022, the IKK which was initially at 1,00 rose to 1,04 in 2018, in 2019 it fell to 0,94, in 2020 it fell to 0,92, but in 2021 it rose to 1,04 and fell to 0,8 in 2022. The dynamics that occur in the IKK show that the government's efforts in dealing with poverty problems have not been optimal. Therefore, a study was conducted to determine the model and factors that affect the IKK in West Sumatra Province using panel data regression analysis. After the research was conducted, the best estimation model obtained was the Fixed Effect Model (FEM). The factors that affect IKK in 2017-2022 are average per capita expenditure and human development index.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Non-Compliance with Traffic Regulations for Motorcycle Users of Mathematics Students UNP

Indah Permata, Helma — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0000

The number of violations that occurred in 2019–2022 on types of motorcycle vehicles concluded that motorcycle violations in Padang City experienced fluctuations. The number of violations is quite high for students. Based on this incident, this research aims to find out about the factor analysis model and what factors influence non-compliance with motorcycle traffic regulations. The data used is primary data obtained from giving questionnaires to UNP Mathematics student respondents, and factor analysis is used to analyze the data. According to the study's findings, the factors formed were as follows: factor 1 was wearing a national standard helmet, having a driver's license, having a vehicle registration, the vehicle meeting technical requirements based on the law, the driver meeting the requirements based on regulations, and factor 2 was obeying signal lights, obeying traffic signs, and understanding traffic rules.

Prediction of Cooking Oil Production Amount Using the Fuzzy Time Series Ruey Chyn Tsaur Method

Rahmawati Rahmawati, Annisa Fitri Ramadani — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Cooking oil is used as a medium for frying foodstuffs that are widely consumed by the general public. Cooking oil can be produced from various raw materials, for example, coconut, copra, palm oil, soybeans, corn seeds, sunflower seeds, olive seeds, and others. This research aims to determine the predicted results of the amount of cooking oil production at PT. Pulau Sambu Kuala Enok and find out the results of forecasting the amount of cooking oil production at PT. Pulau Sambu Kuala Enok in 2023. The method used in this research is Ruey Chyn Tsaur's Fuzzy Time Series. Based on the results of data processing, forecasting results were obtained for January to December 2022 and this forecast has a MAPE value of 17.25%. The research results show that the Fuzzy Time Series Ruey Chyn Tsaur method has a good level of accuracy for predicting the amount of cooking oil production.

Factors Affecting Economic Growth in West Sumatera Province Using Panel Data Regression Analysis

Sherly Helma Putri, Helma — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Economic development is considered successful if the economic growth rate of its people reaches a high level. Indonesia has positive economic growth with economic growth rates above 5% in each quarter. However, the high economic growth of Indonesia does not mean that all regions have the same growth rate. Where the increase in the number of goods and services received or the added value of production factors is often referred to as economic growth. Regional economic growth in West Sumatera Province is known to tend to be negative. This study aims to obtain an overview of panel data regression models and factors that have an influence on economic growth in West Sumatera Province for the period 2018 to 2022. The best regression model obtained is the fixed effect model (FEM), where at a significant level of 5%, the factors that have an influence and positive relationship on economic growth are the human development index and government spending.

Electricity Load Forecasting in East Kalimantan on Religious Holidays Using SARIMA

Primadina Hasanah, Chindy Alvionita Sari, Syalam Ali Wira Dinata — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0000

The availability of electrical energy is one of the main focus in energy security in East Kalimantan. Power outages often occur in East Kalimantan both in weekdays and holidays. Some previous research had conducted to estimate the electricity demand during certain years. However, there are some particular events which are interesting to be carried out. For example, the electricity demands on holiday events such as the religious holidays which are important moment among Indonesian. This research was conducted to find the best model to predict how many electrical loads in East Kalimantan should be prepared by Indonesian’s State Electricity Company (PT PLN) in order to ensure comfortable for communities on religious holidays. Two sample religious holidays have been taken; Eid al-Fitr and Christmas Day, then the forecasting was carried out using SARIMA model on historical hourly data from 2015-2018. The result of this research shown that the best SARIMA model on Eid al-Fitr is SARIMA (0,2,1)(0,1,0)²⁴ with 16,99% of MAPE and the best SARIMA model on Christmas Day is SARIMA (0,2,1)(0,1,0)²⁴ with 8.68%.of MAPE.